New Delhi, Thursday September 09, The southwest monsoon this year continues to surprise with its activity remaining prominent over northwest India well past its withdrawal dates. The monsoon usually starts receding from Rajasthan September 1 onwards but the region has been witnessing continuous rainfall events in the first week of September. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also noted the fact and stated in its latest updates that it might be a while before the monsoon deserts this part of the nation. The US National Center for Environment Protection is of similar opinion and expects a withdrawal from Northwest India only after 15th of September.

The southwest monsoon has also crossed the magical figure of 102% of normal rains after much trepidation in July. August had been a windfall month especially for northwest and central parts of country that had been erstwhile been mute spectators to well spread decent showers along the West coast and south Peninsula. August spell also helped east and northeast India to somewhat recover from its atypical rainfall deficiency this season. As of today these parts were the only regions in the country that faced a shortfall of 20%. Northwest India, central India and south Peninsula received 7, 5 and 21% more rains than historical averages.

But it remains a fact that the monsoon’s rainfall bounty has been erratic with largely dry areas of west Rajasthan and Saurashtra getting 54 and 106% more rains this year. The monsoon turfs of Kerala and coastal Karnataka however witnessed lesser rains this season. The situation is particularly bad in Jharkhand where rainfall deficit is touching 50%.

The monsoon activity had been quite active in the past 24 hours over Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, Vidarbha, Uttarakhand, west Madhya Pradesh and Madhya Maharashtra. The situation is unlikely to alter as the current weather systems are favorable for continuing rains over these regions. The low pressure that was over Vidarbha and adjoining Chhattisgarh yesterday now lies over west Madhya Pradesh and neighborhood. An off-shore trough that is essentially a convergence zone of opposing wind patterns runs from coastal Gujarat to Kerala.

Widespread moderate rain is likely over Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka and Kerala for the next 24 hours. Heavy to very heavy showers can occur over a few places in Gujarat while such intense rain may also occur over Konkan, Goa and north of Madhya Maharashtra but with lesser coverage. Marathwada, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and interior Karnataka will also be under light to moderate rain.

Extensive moderate rain is likely to continue over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Haryana due to confluence of moisture bearing easterly winds in the region. Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan and Jammu & Kashmir will be under the ambit of light showers.

Gangetic West Bengal will witness good amounts and spread of rain during the next 24 hours while Orissa, Jharkhand and Bihar will also get rain at a few places. West Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and south Chhattisgarh will receive a few moderate showers while rain will be of milder intensity over east Madhya Pradesh and north Chhattisgarh.

Most of Northeast India including Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim will also be under the coverage of moderate rain with some heavy showers at Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.